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PHIL 266  Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic  Units: 3.00  
This course introduces the basic concepts, tools, and techniques of probability and inductive logic. Topics to be covered include: calculating probabilities; chance and risk; paradoxes of decision; theories of probability; probability statistics; the philosophical problem of induction; anthropic reasoning and the simulation hypothesis.
Learning Hours: 120 (36 Lecture, 84 Private Study)  
Requirements: Prerequisite Level 2 or above.  
Offering Faculty: Faculty of Arts and Science  

Course Learning Outcomes:

  1. Use the axioms of logic and probability, including Boyes' Theorem, to calculate the probabilities of propositions/events given information presented in natural language.
  2. Construct payoff-matrices from natural language descriptions of situations where a risky decision is necessary and explain the paradoxes of group decisions.
  3. Explain the strengths and weaknesses of the four major theories of probability.
  4. Demonstrate understanding of the logical structure of statistical propositions by defining and calculating confidence intervals, p-values, standard deviations, and related quantities.
  5. Explain the philosophical problem of induction, its significance, and its proposed solutions.
  6. Explain the logic of anthropic reasoning and its application to experience.